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I don't know how to compute the odds, but being out on a lake in a lightning storm is a really bad idea. The mountains around the lake aren't going to provide cover. There are several models about...
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#1: Attribution notice removed
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System
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2020-06-03T15:54:22Z (over 4 years ago)
Source: https://outdoors.stackexchange.com/a/13206 License name: CC BY-SA 3.0 License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/