How dangerous are polar routes, if an aircraft must land on water or wild land?
Suppose an emergency landing necessary for a commercial aircraft on a polar route on water or in the unoccupied, secluded Arctic outback (e.g. Siberia, far northern Canada).
What is the time interval for aid to arrive (I write 'interval' because I know that this question depends on the location)?
How likely would the passengers survive in the freezing cold in their cabin clothes? Assume that they are not equipped with clothes or gear for frigidity.
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N Pacific water landing. Summer. 15 min. if in the water. 30 min on the plane raft. On land. 15 min unless you can get a fire going or find a way to stay warm. At -30 below. Longer the warmer it is. Heat is the main thing. With heat for 40 days with water.
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See The New York Times, Nov 5, 1991, After a Plane Crash, 30 Deadly Hours in the Arctic.
The four-engine turbo-prop aircraft with a wingspan of nearly 150 feet -- a jack-of-all-trades plane widely used by the Canadian and United States military to haul cargo and troops -- was on its final approach to the Alert airstrip [400 miles from the North Pole] when it slammed into the eerie Arctic wasteland and broke up.
There were only 2 hours of pale light in the morning, and the weather was not good. The crash was only 12 miles from the settlement of Alert.
While most of the 18 aboard the plane suffered cuts and burns and broken bones, all were alive immediately after the crash. But in the 30 hours that it took for the first squad of military paramedics to arrive, five people, including the pilot, Capt. John Couch, a 32-year-old father of two, had frozen to death. The airlift of the survivors did not begin until 40 hours after the crash.
The plane carried extensive arctic survival gear, but much of it was lost in the crash and subsequent fire.
Eleven of the 13 survivors lay in sleeping bags inside the tail section, huddled together for warmth, eating candies from survival rations and answering periodic roll calls. Two were left outside, covered by makeshift pup tents, because it was thought they had spinal injuries and could not be moved.
The first rescue team had to parachute from only 700 feet into a driving wind to reach the survivors, because the overland team faced so many difficulties from the terrain.
The article has much more detail, and possibly rescue techniques have improved in 25 years, but remember this was a fully equipped military aircraft that crashed only 12 miles from its destination.
Limitations of this answer:
(1) it is one anecdote
(2) the crash happened in November. The ending would probably have been happier for a June or July crash.
(3) But not necessarily happier, if the crash was into the increasingly summer-ice-free sea
(4) Although not explicitly stated, the passengers were likely young and fit and accustomed to discipline, not the profile of commercial passengers
(5) Where were the polar bears?
(Bottom line: Pack fleece and power bars in your carryon.)
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As a man who has spent a lot of time flying into to and from a camp job in Fort Mcmurray, Canada. I offer my humble opinion.
You are very likely to die very quickly.
Temperatures are deadly, not having the right clothes is pretty much fatal. And that is even before you get above the treeline.
I would say watch the movie alive where this happens, pretty brutal.
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